Anthony J. Pennings, PhD

WRITINGS ON DIGITAL ECONOMICS, ENERGY STRATEGIES, AND GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS

The Digital Spreadsheet: Interface to Space-Time, and Beyond?

Posted on | April 16, 2023 | No Comments

“I must confess that I was not able to find a way to explain the atomistic character of nature. My opinion is that … one has to find a possibility to avoid the space-time continuum altogether. But I have not the slightest idea what kind of elementary concepts could be used in such a theory.” — Albert Einstein (1954)

As an avid bike rider, I’m intrigued by the perception of reality. Accurately perceiving road conditions, nearby traffic, and even the dynamics of staying balanced on my bike all seem crucial to avoiding unpleasant experiences. I’m also intrigued by the “perceptual” characteristics of digital spreadsheets. What do they let us see? What are the power implications of these perceptions? And, at another level, what are the calculative and predictive qualities of spreadsheet formulas? Do the mathematics of spreadsheets have correspondence with reality? Are they illusions? Or do they create new realities?

This post examines connections between my investigation of spreadsheets and some of the cutting-edge theories of quantum physics, neuroscience, and how the human perceptual apparatus interacts with the world. This is not my usual fare, and it’s a big gap to traverse, so this post is exploratory and more of a search for concepts and language to frame the connection. It may not produce the intelligible results I’m hoping for, which is an understanding of how language, numbers, and mathematics operating in the grids of the digital spreadsheet are a source of productivity and power in world. Still, a few valuable ideas may emerge about understanding the digital spreadsheets and their interaction with the objective world, and possibly beyond.

Historically, I’m theoretically influenced by remediation theory, the notion that new media incorporate old media as they try improve on previous technologies and “heal” our perception of reality. It investigates how these remediated technologies converge and produce a more “authentic” version of the world.[1] Television, for example, not only remediates the sound of radio and the optics of film to improve its experience, but now the windowed look of computers, especially on financial channels. Even the microcomputer (PC), that went from the command line interface in early versions to the graphical user interface (GUI) known as WIMP, which stands for “windows, icons, menus, and pointer,” became a more rectified computer experience and easier to use.

I’ve been using this framework to explore spreadsheet components and how they come together to create a pretty incredible tool or “interface” with the world. Previous work on remediation confirmed that its objective is to examine its relationship with reality. Each component or media in the spreadsheet (writing, lists, tables, cells, formulas) introduces its own utility, and with it, a type of perceptual and organizing power. Furthermore, they pair up or work integratively to create a more complex cognitive/media experience.

To start off, the list is an ancient writing technology that has proven its powerful ability to be used to organize armies, monasteries, and palaces.[2] The book and movie Schindler’s List (1992) showed how lists can operate as a technology of social control, as well as a technology of resistance. The list is integrated into the “table-oriented interface” of the spreadsheet that displays and organizes information in a perceptual geometric space to show categories, cells, and relationships between data sets. The spreadsheet was the “killer app” for the PC, meaning people started to buy the personal computer just to run the application.

Spreadsheets produce a more “abstracted” version of reality. But do we really know what this means? Remediation involves cognitive/social media tools such as language, writing, numerals, and other forms of media and representation, such as simulations and mathematical formulations. In basic counting, fingers represent items that can then be displaced. Likewise, alphanumerical numbers represent and aggregate large quantities. With zero and positional notation, the numbers can get very large and still be manageable and manipulated to produce operations that produce intelligible and meaningful data, including information that can inform policy and strategy at the corporate and governmental organization level. The abstraction process renders events and inventories into qualities, dealing with ideas rather than events and items.

Words play an important function in organizing the spreadsheet. They provide both context and content. Lists are labelled and give context to other words and numbers. Words identify things and start to substitute for them and create relationships between them. Words become abstractions as they represent concepts or ideas rather than tangible physical objects. Words allow things to disappear and yet still linger. What and where is the relationship between items in cells and rows? They transform data into aggregated or recategorized information.

Here, I want to consider the implications of Donald Hoffman’s theories of biological and cognitive construction of space-time reality for understanding the power of spreadsheets. First, I’m struck by Hoffman’s contention, shared by many physicists such as Nima Arkani-Hamed, that space-time is doomed and dissolving into more fundamental structures. This contention was confirmed by the 2022 Nobel Prize winners for Physics, where quantum theory won out over relativity.[3] The framework of reality sculpted by Isaac Newton, James Clerk Maxwell, Albert Einstein, and others have been incredibly useful as rigorous explorations/extensions of our corporeal space-time capabilities, but are they sufficient explanations of full reality?

Donald David Hoffman is an American cognitive psychologist and professor at the University of California, Irvine. Interestingly, he also has joint appointments in the School of Computer Science, the Department of Philosophy, and the Department of Logic and Philosophy of Science. He works on cognitive and mathematical theories that tie perception with how we construct an objective world. His “Interface Theory of Perception (ITP)” is central to this post’s inquiry into the power of the spreadsheet.[4]

Hoffman contends that new orders of objective complexity and structure are made perceptible by mathematical computations of formulas. Hoffman argues his theory is further supported by Kurt Gödel’s famous “Incompleteness Theorem” that showed that any consistent mathematical system contains propositions that cannot be proved or disproved within the system. Therefore, digital spreadsheets can possibly be viewed as an interface to multiple and successive stages of reality, including the levels of the objective space-time paradigm, but perhaps infinitely beyond.

Wolfgang Smith echoed Arthur Eddington’s mathematics that conjectured the act of measurement itself summons the quantum into the corporeal reality. Once you measure, you invoke the reality. Smith also contends that the act of measurement brings what he calls the physical (quantum) world into the corporeal (perceptual) world. Mathematical measurement triggers the transition from the physical to the corporal and brings the subcorporeal potential into the world of objective possibilities.

The world we see with our five senses is real and consequential, but our language and mathematical models invoke the quantum world in a process Smith calls vertical causation. Unlike horizontal causation that occurs in space-time, vertical causation instantaneously links the physicist’s world with the corporeal world. But, by distinguishing two ontological planes, the lived world, and the physical world, you can observe certain discontinuities. Drawing on the famous Heisenberg uncertainty principle, the act of observation interrupts the multilocality of particles, splits them into multiple realities, and brings them to a precise ontological place, the corporeal instrument. So, do the observational characteristics of the spreadsheet disrupt the multilocational potentials of the quantum world and bring them to an exact corporeal location?

Hoffman claims that this world is quite different from the world we construct with our perceptual apparatus. He likes to use the example of the desktop icon of a document on a personal computer. The icon is not the document. But you also don’t want to drag it over to a trash can, unless you are prepared to part with that document, and probably lose hours of work. The desktop icon hides the reality of computing devices because that much information is not necessary for using it effectively but gives us an indexical connection. In other words, the icons we perceive have an indexical connection with reality, they are connected, but they are not indicative of all the possible domains of that reality.

We don’t generally interact with the mechanics of the computer, just as we don’t generally interact with the quantum mechanics of reality. A long line of thinkers, from the Greek atomist Democritus, to Descartes’s mind-body dualism, and Alfred Whitehead’s critique of bifurcation have addressed this issue. But maps have been proven to be tethered to reality. Hoffman suggests that what we see in the world is a construction, but nevertheless, one that has payoffs and consequences.[5] Iconic representations can guide useful behaviors, such as crossing the street without being hit by a BMW icon.

So, let’s consider the spreadsheet to be an interface. An interface is a site where independent and often unrelated systems interact. They transcend a boundary and connect and act on or communicate with each other. For spreadsheet use, those systems are the graphical “gridmatic” display of the application on the screen and the “reality” they interface. Reality is a big term, but Newton-Maxwell-Einstein’s notion of space-time apply, to a point. So, the interface of the digital spreadsheet is conducted systematically to examine its power using a “formal” analysis of the spreadsheet. That requires examining the meaning-making capabilities of the parts-the writing, lists, tables, and formulas, and the whole working together.

Getting to the latter part of the interface is difficult, but starting with the former, we can explore the perceptual aspects. The spreadsheet has several media components that begin to address the rift between the objective and post-spacetime world. The spreadsheet experience is initially structured with the words and/or numbers in cells that indicate corresponding indexical and symbolic connections. The base-10 Indo-Arabic numeral system with zero used to create positional notations has been largely accepted worldwide as the accounting standard. They also create categories for lists and rows. Tables provide visualizations of 2-D matrix relationships. This critique of Hoffman is interesting, but gets it wrong. It’s not that the timetable gives some indication of when the bus is coming. The timetable comes before the bus and sets up the whole transportation framework. Most intriguing is the vast array of constructions that are produced by the myriad of formulas incorporated into spreadsheets. 

The remediation contention is that the spreadsheet emerged to give us a more healed or rectified representation of reality. It does this by successfully integrating several media components, including formulas. Given that arrangement, it should be possible to continue to examine the media components and formulas as providing particular points of view that produce knowledge about specific aspects of “reality.” The components combine and build up to provide increased utility. Here, we may not get evolutionary payoffs, but power in social contexts. Formulas should also confer a utility or power that is measurable.

Take for example, the power of the ratio. A ratio sets up relationships across time and space. It is a technique that “fixes” or freezes a relationship in order to construct a moment of reality. Ratios have analytic capacity and can identify high and low performing assets, track overall employee performance, and evaluate profitability.

This type of analysis requires media strategies that scrutinize the components and formulas of spreadsheets as signifying or meaning-making processes. The spreadsheet needs to be examined closely considering its interacting media interface and consider strongly the insights provided by a range of social and physical sciences on the other side of the interface. While Hoffman’s ocular-centric approach does not apply intimately to the spreadsheet, his insistence on a scientific approach is worthy of note and study.

Conclusion

This is a quest for information about how spreadsheets operate effectively in the world, so ultimately, it is quite agnostic about many mathematical, philosophical, and scientific debates. For example, I venture into the realms of discourse initiated by the Greek Philosopher Plato.

It starts with remediation theory’s observation that new media incorporate older media to produce a more “healed” or authentic version of reality. Digital spreadsheets integrate several important media components towards this end, each of which registers and organizes aspects of reality. The PC and its windowed graphical user interface empowered the spreadsheet to combine words, numbers, lists, tables, and mathematical formulas.

The digital spreadsheet, a visual interface, uses language and numerical information organized for intelligibility and uses media and mathematical formulas to initiate horizontal and vertical causation. The spreadsheet interfaces the conscious agent with space-time and the quantum realm to operate in the space-time reality and to “summon” new realities through the acts of writing and measurement. According to Hoffman, consciousness has an “earthsuit” (a biological machine hosting the ghost) with a set of perceptual tools shaped by evolutionary forces. That is what helps me ride a bike safely. Perhaps consciousness now has an additional tool or interface, the digital spreadsheet.

A last note refers to the overall social impact. How much of the social change since 1979 can be attributed to the digital spreadsheet? A professor of mine in graduate school, Majid Tehranian, used to refer to the rise of “spreadsheet capitalism.” To what extent can we attribute the massive shift towards financialization in the early 1980s to the technology of the PC-assisted digital spreadsheet? Can we say it “conjured” a new epoch into existence?[8] If so, what were the implications of this historical shift?

Citation APA (7th Edition)

Pennings, A.J. (2023, April 16). The Digital Spreadsheet: Interface to Space-Time and Beyond? apennings.com https://apennings.com/technologies-of-meaning/the-digital-spreadsheet-interface-to-space-time-and-beyond/

Notes

[1] Bolter, J. D, and Grusin, R.A. Remediation: Understanding New Media. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1999. Print.
[2] Jack Goody’s (1984) Writing and the Organization of Society is informative on the use of the list as a historical management tool.
[3] Alain Aspect, John Clauser, and Anton Zeilinger won the 2022 Nobel Prize for Physics for experiments that proved the quantum nature of reality using the experiment that Einstein himself configured to prove relativity. Smith argues this supports his notion of vertical causality.
[4] So, the Hoffman conceptualization consists of the following three interconnected theories. First is the evolutionary natural selection view that “Fitness Beats Truth (FBT).” Reproduction comes first; accurately gauging the domains of reality is not a necessary requirement. Theorem 2 is the “Interface Theory of Perception (ITP)” that I draw on here, although I find his ocular-centric (vision focus) perspective limited, as shown below. The third theorem is “Conscious Realism,” a fascinating set of ideas that proposes the primacy of conscious agents in the world rather than an objective space-time reality. Evolutionary game theory is where Hoffman stays to keep his theory in the scientific regime. Our biological interface with the world is evolutionarily gained. Our eyes and brains, for example, are designed (or purposely shaped) for reproductive payoffs, staying alive to procreate. I have extraordinary capabilities for surviving my bike rides (so far). But evolution has no particular interest in the truth of reality. Biological agents don’t need to handle that much complexity. They are only interested in reproductive and survival payoffs.
[5] Hoffman, D.D. The Case Against Reality: Why Evolution Hid the Truth from Our Eyes Illustrated Edition. W. W. Norton & Company. Print.
[6] According to Dr. Wolfgang Smith, the act of measurement brings what he calls the physical (quantum) world into the corporeal (perceptual) world. Quantity and qualities are real. The world we see with our five senses is real, but our language and mathematical models invoke the quantum world. Measurement is a transition to and from the physical to the corporal. It brings the subcorporeal potential into the world of possibilities. He says in one world, the grass is green, and in the other, “its all quantum stuff.”
[7] Drawing on mathematician William Demski’s “complex specified information,” Smith suggests this is how complex designs are formed. It mathematically proves that improbable events, such as the writing of a book are not feasible. He explains, “A single letter of the alphabet is specified without being complex. A long sentence of random letters is complex without being specified. A Shakespearean sonnet is both complex and specified.” Unfortunately, Demski was embraced by “intelligent design” movement that ultimately caused him much distress and hampered his career succes.
[8] I start to use term like “summon,” “conjure,” and “evoke” as they have a mystical, almost magical resonance. It is on purpose, but not without recognizing a potential cost in terms of acceptability and viability. There is also a touch of numeromancy and even numerology here that I want to avoid.

I’ve often approached spreadsheets from what I call a techno-epistemological inquiry. It recognizes the unique knowledge-producing capabilities that emerged with digital technologies, particularly databases and spreadsheets. This strategy has been influenced by post-structuralism and “deconstruction” methods that expose the instability of meaning and how power centers in society use language and other signifying practices to intercede to produce and fix meaning.For example, VisiCalc and Lotus 1-2-3 began to be used in the early 1980s financial revolution to perform complex business calculations and interact with the data to evaluate different scenarios. Digital spreadsheets allowed financial analysts to inventory and value the assets of corporations and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Subsequently, the information could be used to borrow money and take over other businesses, as well as enable government agencies and SOEs to be privatized and sold in global capital markets.

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AnthonybwAnthony J. Pennings, PhD is a Professor at the Department of Technology and Society, State University of New York, Korea. Although his major focus is on ICT, he sometimes teaches quantum theory in his introduction to science and technology class. From 2002-2012 was on the faculty of New York University where he taught comparative political economy, digital economics and traditional macroeconomics. He also taught in Digital Media MBA atSt. Edwards University in Austin, Texas, where he lives when not in the Republic of Korea.

Zeihan’s Global Prognostics and Sustainable Development, Part II: Implications of Tesla’s Master Plan 3

Posted on | March 19, 2023 | No Comments

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”

– Niels Bohr (and Yogi Berra)

This post continues the examination of Peter Zeihan’s geopolitical forecasting by contrasting it with Tesla’s guidance on achieving a sustainable global energy economy as presented in its Master Plan 3. Tesla faces extraordinary supply chain challenges in achieving its goals for building electric vehicles (EVs), charging stations, as well as battery packs for homes, businesses, and electric grids. Zeihan has warned about material constraints that will threaten sustainable development with what he considers will be the end of globalization. Nevertheless, Tesla argues that the “sustainable energy economy” is achievable in our lifetime, and a desirable goal.[1]

Tesla’s recent “Investor Day” presentations differed from previous events as it started by highlighting the so-called Master Plan 3. More of a vision for sustainable energy than a venue for future products, the Austin event wasn’t a big hit for investors looking for short-term guidance. Rather, it provided a macro view of a potential sustainable energy economy and Tesla’s contribution to that future. This plan included information on the total amount of energy currently being used worldwide, how much of that is from sustainable renewable sources, and how much is from fossil fuels?

Tesla Master Plan 3

Not surprisingly, it highlighted solutions that mainly favored Telsa’s product lines: large-scale batteries for homes, industrial mini-grids, and electricity producers; solar panels for houses and commercial properties; and electric vehicles for consumers and semis for long-haul transport. Particularly interesting was the manager of charging and the construction of a network infrastructure of superchargers. The rest of the event elaborated on the innovations for profitable production and recycling systems, as well as the efficiencies in geographical range and charging times for EVs.

Less attention was put on political context for reconstituting supply chains for needed materials and minerals in the post-Covid, high inflation, Russia-Ukraine war environment. This is more the domain of Peter Zeihan, a geostrategist with four books to his credit, mostly about the political economy of global energy flows. He worked in Austin, Texas for a decade as part of Stratfor, a forecasting company. In 2012, he started his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics. His primary areas of expertise are economic geography, population studies (demographics), and energy, but he considers himself a generalist who designs forecasts for specific clients. He has become a popular YouTube star primarily because of his statements about the possible end of globalization and its impacts on various countries and the supply challenges of different industries.

He also gained traction with his analysis of the Russian war on Ukraine and the consequences of continued fighting, particularly its implications for sustainable development worldwide. With both countries preoccupied or sanctioned, we face losing major suppliers of critical materials needed for the green economy. Russia is the 2nd largest exporter of crude and refined petroleum products, the largest source of palladium, and the 2nd largest source of platinum group materials (ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium, and platinum) that often occur together in the same mineral deposits. Also, we are losing the third largest copper, titanium, and aluminum sources. Russia and particularly Ukraine, in combination, are also first in neon gases, which is critical for laser technology. All these are critical for the green revolution and continued development of the information and communication technologies (ICT) revolution.

Zeihan is also concerned that the withdrawal of political support for the US Navy operating worldwide to ensure freedom of navigation will be problematic for global trade. During World War II, the Battle of the Atlantic took over 5,000 commercial ships and 60,000 lives from Allied and Axis powers. Lack of maritime protection could collapse the intricate supply chains for the materials and sophisticated technologies needed for the sustainable energy revolution. Is that something we could see in our modern era of globalization?

While not a critic of sustainable energy, Zeihan is less confident than Tesla about its prospects. Claiming to have solar panels on his Colorado house, he is particularly concerned about the geographical distribution of good sunlight and wind energy. He points to Germany’s attempts to go green as particularly problematic. It has poor solar and wind potential and was recently cut off from Russian natural gas and oil. As a result, it has been forced to return to coal and lignite, both significant emitters of carbon dioxide and other pollutants that threaten its climate and pollution goals.

Zeihan points out that the border area around Mexico and the southwest US has significant solar and wind potential. They can provide the new efficiencies of smaller electrical grids run by renewables while still having ready access to the necessary hydrocarbons for paints, plastics, PVC resins, and other carbon-based industrial materials. When a barrel of oil is distilled, not all of it is used for transportation. Even companies from Germany are moving to the area to take advantage of cheap energy and carbon.

This geographic advantage appears to be no mystery to Tesla as it built a major “Gigafactory” in Austin, Texas, with its rooftop solar panels spelling out its logo that can be seen from space. It also announced a new Gigafactory facility across the border in Monterrey, Mexico, rumored to be designed to produce a new $25,000 consumer EV. Telsa is also building a major lithium refinery in Corpus Christi that will be designed to support 50GWh a year of storage capacity and easily draw in the abundant metal from significant producers in Central and South America. In addition, Musk’s related company, SpaceX, has been building and testing rockets in Boca Chica on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico for years now, very close to the border.

Looking back at Tesla’s Master Plan 2 in 2016, it emphasized several important strategies. These included solar roofs with integrated battery storage, expansion of the EV product line, and developing full self-driving (FSD) that is 10x safer due to massive machine learning from vehicle fleets on the road sending back information. Also, they suggested opportunities for using your car with FSD as a “robo-taxi” when you weren’t using it. FSD is still a work in progress, but Tesla Dojo supercomputers are collecting “big data” from over 400,000 participating drivers that have driven over 100 million miles. Tesla estimates that some 6 billion miles of driving will be needed to make the FSD relatively foolproof. Modeling with digital twin vehicles is taking up some of the slack in self-driving testing, but FSD is not universally accepted nor fully tested for its impact on sustainability.

In retrospect, Tesla’s Powerwalls are now in many homes, and its Megapacks (Megapack, Megapack 2, Megapack 2XL) are making a significant difference in both mini and major electric grids. For the latter, the Megapacks have drawn praise for its Virtual Machine Mode (VMM) firmware that smoothes out oscillations in long-range electrical grid transmissions. In addition, Megapacks have been standardized to an optimal size based on the legal requirements for transporting them over common road infrastructure. This standard means they can also be easily and quickly transported and deployed in various storage arrangements that can be scaled up quickly.

Master Plan 3 has a more global macro-perspective examining what Tesla thinks is needed for a sustainable civilization. It proposes that the sustainable energy economy is achievable and within reach during our lifetimes. It starts with some calculations dealing with quantities of electricity produced. The Master Plan suggests that the world needs some 30 TWh of ongoing renewable power capture/generation and a backup of 240 TWh of battery storage capacity. This storage number is a lot of battery capacity, but the trend is toward reducing cobalt, nickel, and even lithium. Instead, using more metals like iron, magnesiumm, and phosphorus provide safer and more long-term energy storage. The TWh (Terawatt-hours) is used in measuring energy and is equal to a million (1,000,000) megawatt-hours (MWh) or a billion (1,000,000,000) Kilowatt-hours (KWh). A Tesla uses about 34 KWh of electricity to go 100 miles. That’s 34,000 kWh per 100,000 miles of travel. Those figures are hard to fathom, and keep in mind that the Petawatt (PWh) units are even larger than TWh.

PWh units (a trillion KWh/hrs) are helpful when considering fossil fuels. The world uses some 165 PWh/year, roughly 80% of which are from combusting extracted hydrocarbons. Furthermore, about 2/3 of that is wasted. For example, an ICE car only uses about 25% of the energy of the fuel pumped into it at the fuel station. Factor in the mining and transportation of carbon-based fuels, and you get even less efficiency. So Tesla argues that instead of the 165 PWh/yr of current energy consumption (of which 20% is renewable), the world only needs 82 PWh/yr of energy if a transition occurs to sustainable sources. That means the world needs half as much energy from current consumption levels if it converts to an electric economy because of the waste factor in hydrocarbon combustion.

Significant transitions will likely occur in the following areas. First, the switch to renewable sources for electricity grids (instead of coal, natural gas, and oil) is expected (by Tesla) to replace 46 PWh/yr of fossil fuel combustion (35%). This transition is already occurring quite rapidly. Sixty percent of new investments in the existing grid have been in renewables.

EVs will replace 28 PWh/yr (21%), and high-temperature heat (stored heat for industrial purposes) and hydrogen will displace another 22PWh/yr (7%). Bill Gates has invested heavily in micro-grids using mirrors to concentrate sun energy and heat liquids to temperatures of over 1000 degrees Celsius. Geothermal and hydrogen are used as well. Replacing fossil fuels in boats and aircraft would reduce another 7PWh/yr (5%). Electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) are on pace to reconfigure certain supply runs and delivery speeds, bypassing trucking and trains. Shipping is already energy efficient compared to other types of transportation but still accounts for 3% of CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs). Finally, heat pumps in buildings will be vital to the move to sustainable energy. These are like air conditioning (AC) units in reverse as they don’t pump heat but refrigerants. Tesla has no current plans to produce them, but they could replace some 29 PWh/yr of fossil fuels, primarily natural gas.

Another issue is real estate. Telsa says that only 0.2% of the Earth’s 510 million square kilometers of surface area is required. But less than 30% or 153 million square kilometers is land. So 0.2% of that is 30,600,000 square km. They further calculate that solar direct land area needed is 0.14% while wind direct land area is 0.03%. So, that is a lot of necessary land, but this is energy we are talking about, and it is absolutely critical for modern life.

Lastly, Tesla suggests this can be done with roughly USD 10 trillion in capital investment. Most of that (70%) will be required to switch to EVs, and another 10% for planes and ships. USD 2 trillion will be needed for the renewable energy grid, heat pumps for buildings, and high-temperature heating for industrial processes. Ten trillion dollars is about 10% of the 2022 World GDP of USD 95 trillion.

Tesla’s Investor Day presentation broadly sketched a vision for a sustainable energy economy and how the company would contribute to that plan. However, Peter Zeihan’s work suggests a tougher road ahead with limited premium locations for solar and wind. Furthermore, a deglobalization trend and geopolitical conflict threaten access to critical resources needed for a green energy revolution.

Notes

[1] This post contains links but most of the information comes from either Tesla or Zeihan. Additional examination of the energy numbers, geopolitical concepts, and technological possibities are needed.

Citation APA (7th Edition)

Pennings, A.J. (2023, Mar 19). Zeihan’s Global Prognostics and Sustainable Development, Part II: Implications of Tesla’s Master Plan 3. apennings.com https://apennings.com/dystopian-economies/zeihans-global-prognostics-and-sustainable-development-part-ii-implications-of-teslas-master-plan-3/

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AnthonybwAnthony J. Pennings, PhD is a Professor at the Department of Technology and Society, State University of New York, Korea. From 2002-2012 was on the faculty of New York University where he taught comparative political economy, digital economics and traditional macroeconomics. He also taught in Digital Media MBA at St. Edwards University in Austin, Texas, where he lives when not in the Republic of Korea.

Technostructural Stages of Global ICT for Development (ICT4D)

Posted on | January 31, 2023 | No Comments

Summarized remarks from my presentation on 30 January 2023 to the Interdisciplinary Doctoral Program in Communication and Information Sciences (CIS) at the University of Hawaii. In this talk, I also attempted to emphasize the contributions made by some of the faculty and research fellows at the University of Hawaii and the East-West Center who pioneered the area of information and communication in development (ICT4D).

“We shape our buildings, and afterwards our buildings shape us.” – From Winston Churchill’s address to the British Parliament that was reworked by the Marshall McLuhan movement into “We shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us.”

Global Tensions in Digital Sustainable Development

This presentation will outline and explore economic and social development stages or phases utilizing information and communications Computerization and Development in SE Asia technologies (ICT). The ICT acronym has emerged as a popular moniker, especially in international usage, for the digital technology revolution and is often combined with “development” to form ICT4D. Development is a contested term with currency in several areas. Still, in global political economy, it refers to building enabling environments and infrastructure needed to improve the quality of human life and bridge equity divides. Traditionally, this has meant enhancing a nation’s agriculture, education, health, and the production of other public goods that are not strictly economy-related but improve well-being and intellectual capital. Lately, it has referred to e-commerce and fintech applications as well.

ICT is increasingly tied to the successful attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), developed by the United Nations in 2015. Created during the time of Secretary-General Ban-Ki moon, 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were approved by the General Assembly for completion by 2030. They replaced the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) that were designed for poor countries in the “South.” Now, SDGs recognize that all countries need to integrate ICT with sustainable development practices, especially countries in the “North” that are hindered by legacy infrastructure and policy frameworks. I teach a course called ICT for Sustainable Development.

Returning to the ICT4D acronym, Martin Hilbert presents a 3-D framework in the video below that is helpful for those unfamiliar with the topic. It does not provide a historical perspective, but the cube framework helps distinguish the development of ICT technologies, services, and skills, from how ICT is used for development, as well as how policy instruments can shape ICT implementation and regulation in a national action plan.

More attention to the historical depth can provide a richer analysis of global ICT4D. My experience in the area and research has shown me that information and communication issues have been at the forefront of international discussion and tension for decades. While technological convergence has changed how entertainment, news, and commercial content flow within and among countries, most nations have struggled with the cultural, economic, and political consequences of those flows for decades and sought collective protection. Understanding the significance of global ICT for development will be useful for shaping relevant governance and investment strategies.

Two major transformations are of particular interest in this study. One was the change of national telecommunications from analog transmission into digital networks based on Internet Protocols (IP). Domestic governments and populations did not often welcome the controversial change because it often involved unemployment and loss of ownership. However, It did supply the capital and motivation to allow national networks to implement digital data, video, and voice services, and eventually offer wireless mobile capabilities. All of which have become crucial technologies for ICT4D.[1] More recently, the processing power of devices and platforms at the network’s edge and the sophistication of algorithmic programs and neural networks have empowered a wide range of cloud services such as search and AI. The propagation speeds of networks and the processing speeds of devices at the edge are potent influences on economic and social development.

The hypertextual World Wide Web (WWW) became the foundation for the Internet and its “click-based” services. Innovative solutions emerged for web-based browsing and search capabilities based on the easy-to-use hyperlink – a word, set of words, or an image coded to access another webpage when “clicked” by a user. Also, the number of websites available expanded quickly because they were easy to create. A coding language called HTML (Hypertext Markup Language) could be learned quickly by non-computer scientists and it became remarkably easy to create new websites. The ability to point and click to initiate an action or retrieve specific information created an engaging and sometimes addicting interactive environment. Haptic feel on smartphones allowed users to click on “app” as well as a link. Furthermore, the opportunity to monitor and register data trails produced by users clicking on links enabled e-commerce, advertising-based web publishing, and later, social media.

The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Information Technology Agreements (ITA) in the mid-1990s radically reduced tariffs on all types of ICT products and services and opened up commercial flows of hardware and software. It also helped internationalize supply chains. By fostering cross-border production and trade, it supported the integration of many developing countries into global supply networks, particularly in Asia, where countries like China, South Korea, and Taiwan became major IT manufacturing hubs. On the other hand, the ITA exposed many domestic industries to increased global competition, as companies from different countries competed on price and innovation. While this led to cost reductions for consumers, some domestic industries struggled to adapt to the increased competition, which shifted more manufacturing operations to lower-cost countries.

Mobile broadband networks and devices have been instrumental in bypassing legacy ICT. Changes in radio spectrum and transmission standards, such as GSM, TDMA, and CDMA allowed new mobile devices and services to proliferate. The development of cellular networks enabled widespread connectivity and the opportunity to bypass traditional legacy network infrastructure. Each generation of mobile network technology improved speed, capacity, and the ability to handle more users and devices, making mobile phone services increasingly accessible globally.

Advancements in semiconductors and microchip technology led to smaller, more efficient, cheaper components that made mobile phones affordable to a broader range of consumers, especially in developing and “emerging” markets. Economies of scale in manufacturing, mainly driven by countries like China, brought down the costs of mobile devices, making them accessible to lower-income populations globally. Mobile devices have helped provide lower-cost communications, establish bank accounts and other financial services, and drive business and development activities in general.

ICT and Development over Time

The ICT4D stages or phases of economic and social development that have played out globally over time and addressed are categorized as:

1) Containment/Modernization;
2) New World Economic and Information Orders;
3) Financialization and Structural Adjustment,
4) Global ICT Integration,
5) Digital Borders and Authoritarianism, and
6) Cloud Capital/ICT for Sustainable Development.

Using a techno-structural approach, explicating these stages provide a historical and spatial context for understanding ICT innovation and implementation trends worldwide. This approach recognizes the reciprocal effects between technological developments and institutional power. ICT, in particular, can enhance both corporate and government power, as well as strengthen civil society and support the missions of NGOs. It is important to consider the “dual-effects hypothesis” to acknowledge the parallel potentials of digital technologies as both a disempowering and an enabling force. ICTs have often “played a dual role in the service of centralization and the dispersion of power.” [2] Research on ICT4D implementation and policy is being conducted worldwide under several terms, including ICT4G, ICT4SD, and digital development. An emerging area is AI4D, recognizing that artificial intelligence (AI) collects networked big data and produces new types cloud-based services that can assist sustainable development.

This research project differs from much of the ICT4D research by acknowledging its deeper roots. This includes a historical perspective that considers the implications of earlier versions of communications and computer technology and the analysis of national computerization policies. These considerations will provide insights into the trajectories and possibilities of ICT diffusion in developing environments.

1) Containment/Modernization

The US emerged as the primary economic and military power in the aftermath of World War II. Arms and materiel sales before and during the war had transferred much of England’s gold to the New York City, which was transferred inland to Fort Knox, Kentucky to avoid Nazi capture in the 1930s. Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) had sought to limit finance in the aftermath of the “Crash of 1929” and the resultant Great Depression. It continued the strategy globally as the war was concluding with a meeting called the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference in 1944. Over 700 delegates, representing 44 allied nations attended the summit, held at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.

“Bretton Woods” created the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the International Trade Organization (although rejected by Congress). It also instituted a dollar-gold standard that tied the US dollar to gold at $35 an ounce (oz) and other international currencies to the US dollar at set rates. This system was designed to enhance trade and “contain” international financial speculation. Individual nation-states would manage trade-based economies with Keynesian macroeconomic coordination. At the same time, the IMF would coordinate currency values and restrict financial speculation.

Another aspect of containment, more widely known, is the containment of the Communist agenda. The painful success of the USSR during World War II in countering the Nazis and their appropriation of German atomic and rocketry technology presented an ideological and military threat to the US and its allies. The US reaction to the USSR’s launch of Sputnik satellites in 1957, a pivotal moment that resulted in the formation of NASA and ARPA (who later developed packet-switching), underscored the urgency and importance of the emerging tensions. The Communist revolution in China in 1949 and their explosion of an atomic bomb on Oct. 16, 1964, spurred additional concerns, including US military intervention inUS Vietnam to contain Communism in Southeast Asia.

The resultant “Cold War” and “Space Race” tensions between the and communism spurred technological development and competition for “developing countries” worldwide. This included rivalry over the appropriate “development” models for economic growth and the development of key sectors such as agriculture, education, and health.

“Modernization” characterized the US post-World War II prescription for economic development worldwide, especially in newly decolonized nation-states. Modernization referred to a transitional process of moving from “traditional” or “primitive” communities to modern societies based on scientific rationality, abstract thought, and the belief in progress. It included urbanization, democratization, economic growth, and “psychic mobility” that types of media could influence. Also, the free flow model of information was championed by modernists to counter state regulation and censorship of the press, especially propaganda by communist opponents.

The general view of modernization theories was that developing countries could be transformed from agricultural-subsistence economies to liberalized modern industrial countries. Inspired by the success of the Marshall Plan in the reconstruction of Europe, the North (both Western and Communist) studied strategies for transforming traditional societies into modern, industrialized economies. Economists and communication scholars in the West described the process as one of progressive developmental stages. They presumed a linear, evolutionary, and universal process of development. Change and capital could achieve higher levels of civil order and industrial development.

The leading proponent of this economic philosophy was Walter Whitman Rostow, whose Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto (1960) outlined five stages that would lead to a modern nation. These were: 1) traditional society, 2) preconditions for takeoff, 3) takeoff, 4) drive towards maturity, and 5) age of high mass consumption. In a later book (1971) he would add, 6) the search for quality. Traditional societies needed to overcome their “resistances” to economic growth in order to achieve the all-important economic take-off stage that would lead them to the dream of economic and political modernization.

Scholars following Walter W. Rostow adopted the “stages” of economic development leading to an eventual “takeoff” into the realm of a modern society. If the proper regiment was followed, particularly the adoption of new agricultural techniques termed the “Green Revolution” that was heavily dependent on fertilizers and pesticides, developing countries could modernize.[3] Through the process of emulating the West, developing countries could attain increasing rates of economic growth and political democracy. Systems of bureaucracy and tradition, seen as endemic to developing countries, could be overcome through policies which liberalized markets, democratized politics, encouraged foreign trade and investment, and strove to break down traditional cultures.

Interestingly, orthodox communism also presumed a linear path for economic growth, but one based not on capital but on labor and the “forces of production.” Capitalism was merely one stage in their development schemata that would eventually lead to a communist apex, liberating the working classes. The highest level to be achieved would be one of socialist equality, not mass consumption. Communism proved a staunch competitor to the West, especially in Asia and South America. India, for example, while keeping its British legal system and adopting a parliamentary system of democracy, largely incorporated the Soviet mode of industrialization. Jawaharlal Nehru, newly decolonialized India’s first Prime Minister, split from his friend and mentor Mahatma Gandhi, who stressed self-sufficiency and domestic production. Nehru would follow a state-led form of economic development based on the Russian industrial model.

The South was influenced by both these ideologies but began to perceive their own conditions as a deformation or underdevelopment due to unequal relations between North and South countries. Raul Prebisch, former head of the Argentine Central Bank, started using the terms “center” and “periphery” in his lectures during the 1940s. He critiqued the influence of the most powerful countries on the international division of labor, the declining prices of commodity goods (agriculture, minerals, and forestry), and their negative impact on local industrialization.[i] Several forums became important for expressing these concerns, notably the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) formed after the 1964 meeting that sought to protect young industries in the Third World.

C4D to ICT4D

Daniel Lerner’s (1958) The Passing of Traditional Society, argued that the psychic mobility of “peasants” could be manipulated by mass media. As a result, it would transform traditional societies into modern consumer societies. It provided a crucial intellectual foundation for communication scholars such as Wilbur Schramm and Everett Rogers and was instrumental in the field known as “Communication for Development” (C4D) that was a precursor to ICT4D.

Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) were rarely stressed in the early days of development communication, but “five communication revolutions” (print, film, radio, television, and later, satellites) were beginning to be recognized as contributing to national development.[4] The five mass media technologies were beginning to spread information and imagery about practices in agriculture, health, education, and national governance. The hope of social mobility was also enhanced by entertainment and advertising images of a modern consumer society in magazines and television.

Some early computerization projects continued population analysis, such as the census that had started with tabulation machines. Mainframes and minicomputers were increasingly utilized for statistical gathering by government agencies for development processes.

Telegraphy and telephones were strangely absent from much of the early discussion but were important for government activities as well as commercial operations such as large-scale plantations, mining operations, transportation coordination, and maritime shipping. Because of their large capital requirements and geographic expanse, countries uniformly developed state-controlled Post, Telephone, and Telegraph (PTTs) entities with the help and guidance of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). The ITU is the oldest United Nations entity having been formed in the 1860s with the widespread adoption of the telegraph. PTTs struggled to provide basic voice and telegraphic services. However, they provided much needed jobs, technical resources, and currency for the national treasury.

International Telephone & Telegraph (ITT) was a private company that transcended borders and sold electronic equipment to PTTs, laid undersea telecommunication cables, and bought into telephone and telegraph companies worldwide. However, ITT suffered from political complications and diversified its holdings in the 1960s and 1970s, diminishing its role in international telecommunications.

Wilbur Schramm’s (1964) book Mass Media and National Development made crucial links between media and national development and became very influential in developing countries. Published by Stanford University Press and UNESCO, it examined the role of newspapers, radio, and television. Its emphasis on the role of communication and information in development also laid the foundation for the analysis of computerization and ICT in the development process.

The East-West Center’s Institute of Culture and Communication

I had an office next to Schramm for many years while I worked on the National Computerization Policy project at the East-West Center’s Communication Institute that he founded. We were inspired by The Computerization of Society: A Report to the President of France (1982), otherwise known as the Nora-Minc Report. Syed Rahim and I (as an intern) worked with the Asian Media Information and Communication Centre (AMIC) in Singapore to produce Computerization and Development in Southeast Asia (1987), which proved to be a benchmark study on ICT4D. AMIC is an international, non-profit, non-government organization currently based in Manila that has been a major research hub for media and information technologies and their influence on development.

The Communication Insitute’s name was changed in 1984 to the Institute of Culture and Communication under the leadership of Mary Bitterman, the former Jimmy Carter appointee to head the Voice of America. It integrated the Culture Learning Institute at the EWC and reflected the growing concern with culture in C4D.

Herbert Dordick, Meheroo Jussawalla, and Deane Neubauer were other key scholars conducting research on the transition from Communication for Development (C4D) to ICT4D at the East-West Center in Honolulu. But others dealing with news flow were important as well and can give us insights into concerns that erupted in response to modernization.

2) New World Economic and Information Orders

In the early 1970s, Nixon ended the dollar-gold standard established at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944, resulting in very volatile currency markets. Nixon administration had convinced Saudi Arabia to sell its oil only for dollars so countries needed to procure dollars for their energy needs. Oil prices increased, and dollars flowed into OPEC countries, only to be lent out to cash-poor developing countries in syndicated lending networks known as “petrodollar” markets. These instabilities created “stagflation” around the world and a general sense of “malaise” as President Jimmy Carter called it. It also brought concerns by the emerging South to the forefront of debates in international forums.

Rising frustrations and concerns about “neo-colonialism” due to the power of transnational corporations (TNCs), especially news companies, resulted in a collective call by developing countries for various conceptions of a New International Economic Order (NIEO) “New World Information and Communication Order.” They were echoed by many NGOs in the wake of OPEC oil shocks and the pressures of the impending Third World debt crisis.

In the early 1960s, the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) was formed by several countries trying to negotiate the tensions between the US and its Western allies and a bloc of Soviet-led and aligned countries. In 1961, the Non-Aligned Movement was formally established in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, through an initiative forwarded by Yugoslav President Josip Broz Tito, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Ghanaian President Kwame Nkrumah, and Indonesian President Sukarno, who had proposed its principles agreed upon at the Bandung Conference of 1955.

From 1964, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), along with the NAM and the the Group of 77, initiated forums for discussions about the New International and Economic Order (NIEO). Its motto was “trade, not aid” and major concerns involved:

  • Commodity price stabilization.
  • Restructuring international trade to reduce developed country tariff and non-tariff barriers.
  • Diversifying developing economies through industrialization.
  • Integrating developing countries’ economies into regional free trade blocs like the Caribbean Community.

These groups became a major voting bloc at the United Nations that adopted the “Declaration for the Establishment of a New International Economic Order” in May 1974.

These concerns would lead, in part, to the rise of Marxist-informed dependency and underdevelopment paradigms that saw global economic development in terms of power relationships between core geographic areas and weaker periphery areas. This had been discerned from intra-national conditions where major cities develop advantages over the countryside. The dynamic was ascribed to international conditions where developed countries had advantages over lesser developed countries. The periphery would develop dependencies on the core areas and the argument was expanded to propose that the center would impose underdevelopment on the outlying areas and countries.

Other important issues were news flow and the imbalanced flow of information. Developing countries were concerned about the selective flows of news and data from developing to developed countries. In part, it was the preponderance of journalism dealing with disasters, coups, and other calamities that many countries felt portrayed their countries in a negative light and restricted incoming foreign investment flows.[5] North to South news imbalances countries also meant that developing countries were bombarded with media content from developed countries many considered not appropriate or relevant to their development needs.

Transborder Data Flows (TDF) concerns the transfer of computer-readable information across national borders. It became a matter of concern for many countries that felt it was having a “trojan horse” effect as important development and national information bypassed domestic scrutiny. TDF included privacy protection, data security, national laws, data havens, and certification costs. Also, magnetic tape, conditioned leased telephone lines, and value-added networks were making computer-based information easier to transport and transmit.

The term, New World Information and Communication Order (NWICO), sometimes shortened to New World Information Order (NWIO), also began circulating in international forums to address media and news concerns. It was picked up by the MacBride Commission, set up by the United Nations’ Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in 1977 and led by Nobel Prize winner Sean MacBride. Its October 1980 Many Voices, One World report called for the democratization of communication and news flow and strengthening national media and journalistic practices. Its recommendations included making global media representation more equitable and national media less dependent on external sources, particularly the news agencies such as Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters, and United Press International (UPI).

It was followed by concerns about obstacles hindering communications infrastructure development and how telecommunications access across the world could be stimulated. In 1983, UNESCO’s World Communication Year, an Independent Commission met several times to discuss the importance of communication infrastructure for social and economic development and to make recommendations for spurring its growth.

The Commission consisted of seventeen members – primarily communication elites from private and public sectors representing several countries. Spurred on by the growing optimism about the development potential of telecommunications, they investigated ways that Third World countries could be supported in this area. They published their recommendations in The Missing Link (1984) or what soon was to be called the “Maitland Report” after its Chair, Sir Donald Maitland from the United Kingdom. This report brought recognition to the role of telecommunications in development and opened up resources by international organizations such as the World Bank.

The transition from telegraph and telex machines to computers and data communications also resulted in concerns about information transcending national boundaries. As a result, the Intergovernmental Bureau for Informatics (IBI), which had been set up as the International Computation Centre (ICC) in 1951 to help countries access major computers, began to study national computerization policy issues in the mid-1970s. The IBI-ICC assisted its member countries to understand the impact of technology on society and take advantage of the opportunities they presented.

The IBI increasingly focused on transborder data flows (TDF) that moved sensitive corporate, government, and personal information across national boundaries. The first International Conference on Transborder Data Flows was organized in September 1980, followed by a second held in 1984; both were held in Rome (Italy). The increasing use of computers raised questions about accounting and economic data that avoided political and tax scrutiny. The concern was that these data movements could act like a “trojan horse” and compromise a country’s credit ratings, national sovereignty, and citizens’ privacy.

3) Financialization and Structural Adjustment

Instead of a New International Economic Order, a new era of “structural adjustment” enforced by the International Monetary Fund emerged that targeted government entities and restrictions on the flow of financial news, investment, and lending. A major target was State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), especially post, telephone, and telegraph (PTT) agencies and other aspects of government administration and commercial ownership.

The North–South Summit, officially the International Meeting on Cooperation and Development, was held in Cancun, Mexico at the end of October 1981. The summit was attended by representatives of 22 countries from 5 continents, including the leaders from Britain, France, and the US.[2] Newly elected US president Ronald Reagan told world leaders that in order to get foreign aid, developing nations needed to lower taxes, reduce government spending, pursue market-oriented economic policies and privatize government agencies. Development, he proclaimed, was not a question of “East versus West” but of “sense versus nonsense.” Development, he added, is created and sustained by private initiative and not coerced by governments. The sentiment was echoed by Prime Minister Margeret Thatcher who said developing countries needed to attract private investment and the “continuing flow of bank lending” with fair treatment for investment from abroad and the continual demonstration of creditworthiness.

This new system would require a higher level of news flow and transparency. Reagan ordered that financial support for UNESCO end in December 1983, citing the politicization of “a free market and a free press.” The move was applauded by the news companies who balked against the proposed licensing of journalists, and an international code of press ethics as well as increased government control over media content. It was opposed by many decolonized states in Africa and Asia that were leaning towards the Soviet bloc positions. But as the Space Race placed satellites in geosynchronous orbit and fiber optic cables began to traverse the ocean floors, a new paradigm of global information flow was emerging for data-enhanced supply chains and credit flows.

The Reagan administration retasked the IMF from harmonizing currency relationships to changing the political economy in debt-ridden countries. Petrodollars had circulated to international banks to be lent out to countries needing cash for energy purchases and infrastructure projects such as bridges and highways. The resultant “Third World Debt Crisis” provided the lever to force the Reagan-Thatcher agenda on countries as they needed IMF approval for additional loans. A primary target was the telecommunications infrastructure.

Long considered agents of national development and employment, PTTs came under increasing criticism for their antiquated technologies and lack of customer service. Thatcher aggressively pursued the sale of British Telecom shares to the public while the US broke up behemoth AT&T into regional Bell-operating companies (RBOCs). New Zealand adopted the privatization model citing the opportunity to retire 1/3 of its national debt as it sold it to 2 RBOCs who were required to sell 51 percent of the “Kiwi shares” to the domestic public. It was soon followed by Australia and other countries such as Singapore.

The flow of petrodollar lending and rising national debt in borrowing countries put pressure on PTTs to add new value-added data networks and undergo satellite deregulation. Global circuits of digital money and news emerged, such as Reuters Money Monitor Rates and SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Telecommunications). These networks, the first to use packet-switching, linked currency exchange markets worldwide in arguably the first virtual market. The volatility of financial markets due to the continual decontainment of finance added to the interest in telecommunications.

A new techno-economic imperative emerged that changed the relationship between government agencies and global capital. PC-based spreadsheet technologies were utilized to inventory, value, and privatize PTTs to be corporatized and listed on electronically linked share-market exchanges. Communications markets were liberalized to allow domestic and international competition for new telecommunications services. Sales of digital switches and fiber optic networks increased. Globalization was proceeding at an unprecedented scale.

Developing countries became “emerging markets,” consistently disciplined by what became known as the “Washington Consensus,” stressing a set of policy prescriptions to continue to open them up to transborder data flows and international investment.[6] Citicorp CEO Walther Wriston talked of the movement from the gold-dollar standard to an electronic “information standard,” coordinating the movement of capital to places that treated it well.

The gold-backed international currency framework that shaped the global economy after World War II was replaced by a new techno-financial system of computerized transactions, news flow, risk management, and technical analysis. US treasuries were the new foundation for the continuation of the Eurodollar as the US dollar strengthened its status as the global reserve currency and vehicle for transactions. Gold became just another dataset in the complex trading algorithms that shaped the prices and trades of the global financial system and consequently shaped the policy decisions of nations and the flows of investment capital.[7]

4) Global ICT Integration

The Internet became useful after Mosaic was developed at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) in late 1992 and released in 1993. The NCSA was funded by the High-Performance Computing Act of 1991, otherwise known as the “Gore Bill,” after its sponsor, Senator Al Gore Jr. Mosaic was developed by Marc Andreessen and other graduate students to take advantage of the hypertext protocols developed at CERN and the resource-sharing capabilities of the National Science Foundation’s NSFNET. They would go on to form Netscape, and its new web browser would be freely distributed to individuals and licensed to companies. When Congress altered NSFNET’s acceptable use policy in March 1991 to allow commercial traffic, the Internet was seen as the harbinger of a new economy.

Vice President Al Gore Jr. targeted national PTT monopolies and government regulatory agencies when he introduced the Global Information Infrastructure (GII) at the annual ITU meeting in Buenos Aires in March of 1994. There he proposed a new model of global telecommunications based on competition, instead of monopoly. He stressed the rule of law and the interconnection of new networks to existing networks at fair prices. In some ways he was echoing his father, the late Al Gore who had championed the interstate highway infrastructure across the US during the 1950s.

    I am very proud to have the opportunity to address the first development conference of the ITU because the President of the United States and I believe that an essential prerequisite to sustainable development, for all members of the human family, is the creation of this network of networks. To accomplish this purpose, legislators, regulators, and business people must do this: build and operate a Global Information Infrastructure. This GII will circle the globe with information superhighways on which all people can travel.

Gore followed up the next month in Marrakesh, Morocco, at the closing meeting of the Uruguay Round of the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) negotiations. The Marrakesh Agreement aimed to create an multilateral trading system encompassing the GATT as well as the results of all the previous trade rounds that had been conducted since 1947. Significantly, that included the GATS (General Agreement on Trade in Services). GATS included everything from circuses, education, radio, and television, to telephone and data services. This process led to prices becoming very cheap for international data-based services, including video. Also at Marrakesh, they called for the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) creation.

Formed in early 1995, with New Zealand’s former PM Michael Moore at the helm, the WTO had two meetings in 1996 and 1997 that created the new era of global communications and development. Members party to the new multilateral arrangement met quickly in Singapore in 1996 to reduce tariffs on the international sales of a wide variety of information technologies. The Information Technology Agreement (ITA) was signed by 29 participants in December 1996. The agreement was expanded at the Nairobi Ministerial Conference in December 2015, to cover an additional 201 products valued at over $1.3 trillion per year. The agreements allowed Korea to successfully market early CDMA mobile handsets and develop a trajectory of success in the global smartphone market.

In 1997 the WTO met in Geneva and established rules for the continued privatization of national telecommunications operations. Sixty-nine nations party to the WTO, including the US, signed the Agreement on Basic Telecommunications Services in 1997 that codified new rules for telecommunications deregulation where countries agreed to privatize and open their telecommunications infrastructures to foreign penetration and competition by other telcos.

The agreements came at a crucial technological time. The World Wide Web (WWW) was a working technology, but it would not have lived up to its namesake if the WTO had not: 1) negotiated and reduced tariffs for crucial networking technologies, and computer devices, and 2) negotiated a new services arrangement that reduced the prices on international communications, including video. The resultant liberalization of data and mobile services around the world made possible a new stage in global development.

Packet-switching technologies that had been standardized into the ITU’s X.25 and X.75 protocols for PTT data networks transformed into ubiquitous TCP/IP networks by the late 1990s. Cisco Systems became the principal enabler with multi-protocol routers designed for enterprises, governments, and telcos. However, Lucent, Northern Telecom, and other telecommunications equipment suppliers quickly lost market share as the Internet protocols, mandated by the US military’s ARPANET and later by the National Science Foundation’s NSFNET, were integrated into ISDN, ATM, and SONET telecommunications technologies around the world.

Hypertext, Ad Markets, and Search Engines

The online economy emerged with the Internet and its hypertext “click” environment. Starting with advertising and the keyword search and auctioning system, a new means of economic surveillance and political participation emerged. It was based on the wide-scale collection and rendition of behavioral data that emerged for prediction products and services.

As Shoshana Zuboff pointed out in Surveillance Capitalism (2019), the economy expands by finding new things to commodify, and the Internet provided a multitude of new products and services that could be sold. When the Internet was privatized in the early 1990s and the World Wide Web (WWW) established the protocols for hypertext and webpages, new virtual worlds of online media spaces were enabled. These were called “inventory.” This ad space was based on the amount of storage available and would be placed on a website, news site, or other web publication. The type of ad was based the information they had about the viewer based on registered clicks.

Behavioral data is the information produced as a result of actions that can be measured from a range of devices connected to the Internet, such as a PC, tablet, or smartphone. Behavioral data tracks the sites visited, downloaded apps, or played games. Cloud platforms claim human experience as free raw material for translation into behavioral data. Some of this data is applied to product or service improvements; the rest are declared proprietary behavioral surplus and fed into advanced algorithim processes known as ‘machine intelligence.’ Automated machine processes can capture knowledge about behaviors, but also shape behaviors.

Surplus behavioral and instrumental data is turned into prediction products such as recommendation engines for e-commerce and entertainment. These anticipate what people will do now, soon, and later. Prediction products are traded in a new kind of marketplace for behavioral predictions called behavioral futures markets. These are primarily used in advertising systems based on CTR, Pay-Per-Click (PPC), and real-time bidding auction systems.

While ICT has a long history in global affairs, digital technologies largely emerged from the commercialization of Cold War and Space Race technologies. They were deeply molded by financialization and globalization processes in the 1970s and 1980s. Shaping the global infrastructure for the Internet involved aggressive political stances in remaking telecommunications systems. Deep changes were needed to allow hypertext protocols and TCP/IP technologies to be standardized and implemented worldwide for economic and social uses.

6) Digital Borders and Authoritarianism

Despite cyberspace’s promise of a world without digital borders, nationalistic concerns started to re-emerge into the new millennium. In the post-colonial era, domestic powers were often keen to limit economic and financial information flows that may act as a type of “trojan horse” passing through national boundaries without scrutiny. Before the leverage of petro-dollar debt opened up the flows of information and capital that characterized neo-liberal financialization, nations policed telecommunications borders worldwide, both technologically and politically. PTTs operated as a type of electronic moat that would be nearly unrecognizable by the turn of the century. Other ministries restricted capital and news flows. However, the push to deregulate and privatize the telco environment liberalized transnational information flows.

See this chapter at Digital Borders and Authoritarianism

Competing Cloud Capital

7) Smart/Sustainable Development

We recently passed the halfway point for the sustainable development goals (SDGs) outlined by the United Nations in 2015. The SDGs are providing additional impetus for global ICT4D as it encourages infrastructure building and support for crucial development activities that ICT can assist, such as monitoring land and sea resources, encouraging entrepreneurship, and providing affordable health information and communication activities.

The aggressive trade negotiations and agreements in the 1990s significantly reduced the costs of ICT devices and communication exchanges worldwide, making possible a wide variety of new commercial and development activities based on ICT capabilities. Countries significantly reduced their tariffs on electronics and services imports, making possible their adoption and diffusion among broader populations. Now, smart technologies are produced from complex international supply chains that advance technology and reduce prices – but are subject to the vagaries of globalization.

ICT4D is highly reliant on affordable digital devices and network equipment. A key variable going forward is the value of the dollar, the world’s primary reserve and transacting currency. A global shortage of dollars due to higher interest rates and greater political risk means increased prices for imported goods, regardless of agreements that lower import tariffs. In addition, the post-Covid crisis and Ukrainian invasion have stressed supply chains of critical materials and raw Earth minerals, further adding to potential costs of ICT and geopolitical risk facing sustainable development.

SDGs are Sustainable Development Goals

But there are characteristics of ICT4D that can offset the potential problems of digital equipment. The near-zero marginal costs for digital products make information content and services more accessible for developing countries. Books, MOOCs, and other online services provide value to a vast population with minimal costs to reach each additional person. Platform-based services providing agricultural, health, and other development services provide low-cost accessibility and outreach. They allow new applications to scale significantly with low costs.

Incidentally and significantly, renewable energy sources like solar and wind also provide near-zero marginal costs for producing electricity. Like digital products, they require high initial investments but output continuous product at low costs once operational. Offshore windmills, for example, can figuratively print money once the facility is set up and operating.

Mobility, broadband, and cloud services are three significant technologies presenting positive prospects for ICT4D. Mobile broadband technologies that bypass traditional wireline “last mile” infrastructure have been a major boost for ICT4D. They provide significant connectivity across a wide range of the population and with key commercial and government entities. 4G LTE technologies currently provide the optimal service, as 5G towers consume nearly over 60% more power than LTE. They also require more base stations and antennas as their range is lower.

Enhanced connectivity strengthens network effects. Blockchain technologies and cryptocurrencies, the Internet of Things (IoT), and the proliferation of web platforms are some of the current conceptions of how reduced costs for communications and information analysis are enhancing network effects and creating value from the collection and processing of unstructured data.

Concluding Remarks

This project looks at the historical phases and international dynamics of ICT4D. The “five communication revolutions” (print, film, radio, television, and later, satellites) had a significant impact on the development of national identities within a global context. These technologies were often enlisted in the contest between the US and its allies and the Communist countries. The telegraph and telephone were powerful commercial technologies that often synchronized with tabulating machines to create information collection processes and the nascent data processing industry. They were also central to news agencies that were expanding and feeding newspaper worldwide.

These technologies provided a powerful edge for globalizing companies that many countries considered a new type of colonialism. Many countries joined in the “non-aligned movement” to protest the strong globalizing trends and call for a “New World Information and Communication Order” in UN forums that would address economic and information imbalances between the powerful “North” and the weaker “South” countries.

The North doubled down on the emerging technological imperatives and the markets they enabled. They stressed breaking up state-owned enterprises and especially government-owned telecommunications systems that impeded international data flows. PC-enabled spreadsheets helped investment banks and financial traders inventory and value SOEs to be sold off to investors. The accumulation of debt during the 1970s was a lever that opened up countries to flows of capital and associated news.

Fiber optics and digital switches enhanced national and international telecommunications. The development of Internet technologies brought additional pressures on national information systems. The WTO brought together services and technology concerns into a wide set of agreements to reduce tariffs on both to make ICT widely available and relatively cheap worldwide.

Mobile, broadband, and online platforms are currently deemed most useful for ICT4D. They have shown the potential, primarily in smaller-scale projects to assist health, education, and other sustainable development activities. But ICT is a global technology that is difficult to replicate at a national scale. Technologies cheaper than the leading-edge digital devices, such as Orange’s 4G Sanza Touch, are becoming more available but still have ties to more extensive economic interests. Orange, for example, is a French-based telecommunications provider that also operates in many African countries.

In further explanation of these phases, I will provide a context for a further investigation of ICT for development, drawing on historical and current research. Of particular concern is the implementation of policies and practices related to contemporary sustainable development practices, but commercial and monetization techniques are important as well.

Notes

[1] Dordick, Herbert S. and Neubauer, Deane. 1985. “Information as Currency: Organizational Restructuring Under the Impact of the Information Revolution.” Bulletin of the Institute for Communications Research, Keio University, No 25, 12–13. This journal article was particularly insightful into the dynamics of the PTTs that would lead to pressures on them to adapt IP technologies leading to the World Wide Web.
[2] The techno-structural approach in development can be attributed to a debate between Ithiel de Sola Pool and Majid Tehranian. Pool‘s Technologies of Freedom was written by the MIT professor, primarily at the University of Hawaii Law Library and put forward a strong libertarian thesis about communications technologies and how technical change in this dynamic area should be treated by the legal/regulatory system. Tehranian felt compelled to respond with his “technostructuralist” book Technologies of Power. emphasizing that new technologies are guided in their development and deployment along existing lines of corporate, governmental, and military power. Other scholars, especially Richard Heeks and Tim Unwin have reframed the Communications/Computerization/Development debate in terms of ICT4D but put its origins in the 1980s. Heeks, R. (2017) Information and Communication Technology for Development (ICT4D) (Routledge Perspectives on Development) 1st Edition. Also Unwin, T. (2017) Reclaiming Information and Communication Technologies for Development. Oxford University Press.
[3] Rostow, W.W. (1960) Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. See also Rostow W.W., (1965) Stages of Political Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
[4] Lerner, D. (1976). 16. Technology, Communication, and Change. In W. Schramm & D. Lerner (Ed.), Communication and Change: The Last Ten Years – and the Next (pp. 285-301). Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780824887100-017
[5] An excellent discussion of the various development and new world communication and economic order calls can be found in Vincent, R. C., Galtung, J. (1992). Global Glasnost: Toward a New World Information and Communication Order? United States: Hampton Press. Also, see Jussawalla, M. (1981) Bridging Global Barriers: Two New International Orders. Papers of the East-West Communications Institute. Honolulu, Hawaii.
[6] The Washington Consensus was a set of policy prescriptions involving fiscal discipline, liberalization of trade and the inflows of capital, privatization, tax reform, and the deregulation of a wide range of industries to allow competition and foreign ownership.
[7] Wriston, W.W. (1992) The Twilight of Sovereignty : How the Information Revolution Is Transforming Our World.

[i] Chilote, R.H. (1984) Theories of Development and Underdevelopment. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
[ii] Rostow, W. W. (1960) The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. Cambridge University Press.
[iii] Rostow, W. W. (1971) Politics and the Stages of Growth. Cambridge University Press.
[iv] FAO (2007) World Congress on Communication for Development
Lessons, Challenges and the Way Forward. Part of the debate was whether it was Communication for Development or Development Communication. Both terms refer to using communication to support development initiatives, but they emphasize different perspectives and methodologies. Development Communication was historically used to describe a more traditional, often top-down approach to using communication for informing or educating a population and to promote government-led development initiatives. Development communication aimed at information dissemination, public awareness, and persuasion to effect behaviorial change. This approach focused on using mass media (radio, print, later television) to spread or “diffuse” messages, primarily about modern agricultural practices, family planning, and literacy.

Communication for Development (C4D) was a tern adopted by many international organizations, like UNICEF and the United Nations, and focused on communication strategies that emphasized the wider socio-political environment, including social norms, policies, and structures that influence communities and social groups. C4D aims to empower communities to address systemic issues, advocate for policy changes, and improve social equity. It is also about seeking change at different levels including listening, building trust, sharing knowledge and skills, building policies, debating and learning for sustained and meaningful change. Later, the 2006 World Congress on Communication for Development defined C4D as ‘a social process based on dialogue using a broad range of tools and methods.

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AnthonybwAnthony J. Pennings, Ph.D. is a Professor in the Department of Technology and Society, State University of New York, Korea where he manages an undergraduate program with a specialization in ICT4D. His background in ICT4D goes back to the Computerization Policy Project at the at the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii in the mid-1980s as an undergraduate research intern. After getting his PhD from the University of Hawaii, he moved to New Zealand to teach at Victoria University in Wellington. There he saw the complex international pressures shaping the island nation. From 2002-2012 he was on the faculty of New York University. His US home is in Austin, Texas.

The Expanse: Cyberpunk in Space

Posted on | January 21, 2023 | No Comments

The cyberpunk movement emerged in the mid-1980s and has lingered on with occasional stories enticing the audience’s imaginations with their futuristic narratives and visions. Frances Bonner offered the 4 Cs of cyberpunk to examine various science fiction stories in visual media.[1] These four categories of computers, corporations, corporeality, and criminality provide a way to gauge if a narrative could be classified as part of the cyberpunk genre. I also use them as categories for socio-techical analysis of current conditions, but in this case I will conduct a more traditional genre analysis by examining a science fiction TV series.

In these posts, I use Bonner’s 4 Cs of cyberpunk to examine The Expanse, which premiered in 2015 on the Syfy network and has continued on Amazon Prime, completing its 6th season in 2022. The cyberpunk genre is interesting to me for its insights into social dynamics.

Recent examples of cyberpunk in visual media include the Blade Runner 2049 (2017), The Ghost in the Shell (2017) and several video games such as the controversial Cyberpunk 2077. Bonner considered the ABC Network show Max Headroom to be probably the most characteristic example of cyberpunk, although the goal was not to necessarily to create a canon of cyberpunk.

The Expanse (201) is based on the novels of James S. A. Corey, the joint pen name of authors Daniel Abraham and Ty Franck. Their first novel Leviathan Wakes won the famous science fiction Hugo Award in 2012. They wrote eight more books in the series, which centers around the crew of the Rocinante, a fusion-drive-powered space ship salvaged from the Mars Congressional Republic Navy (MCRN).

The Expanse is about the colonization and commercialization of our solar system and some exploration beyond. It focuses on the terraforming of Mars and mining the Asteroid Belt. Earth is under the governance of the United Nations and in conflict with Mars, and with another faction called the Outer Planets Alliance (OPA). The OPA is an organization consisting mainly of the “Belters,” who do most of the construction and mining and are bitter about their conditions and explotation. These workers colonialized the Asteroid Belt, the dwarf planet Ceres, and some moons around the outer planets. Belters have developed their own culture, most notably a creole “pidgin” language, but even their bodies have diverged from Earth and Mars, growing long and thin due to the reduced gravity.

The 4 Cs is a framework to conduct a genre inquiry and build knowledge by addressing the categories and letting them discipline the investigation. I’ve been using it more to develop a socio-technical analysis develop a socio-technical analysis of various tech products in areas such as AI, energy, biochemistry, nanotechnology, robotics, and even space travel. Still, in this case, I’m using it for traditional genre analysis to get a sense of where science fiction is guiding our imagination. What is it saying about who we are and where we are heading as a civilization?

In general, I’m more interested in applying insights provided by cyberpunk to the social analysis of various technologies and their interrelationship with culture, economics and politics.[2] This is an exercise I often do with students. Each category of the 4Cs is an opportunity to produce evidence towards a better understanding of the complex world we live in.

But its useful to stay in touch with stories and do the genre analysis. As I’m on winter break, I’m enjoying watching the series again. In the next post of this series, I will discuss of each of the 4 Cs: Corporations, Criminality, Corporeality, and Cyberspace relate to The Expanse.

Notes

[1] Bonner, F. (1992). Separate Development: Cyberpunk in Film and Television (1037673716794540726 T. Shippey, Ed.). In 1037673715 794540726 G. Slusser (Ed.), Fiction 2000:Cyberpunk and the Future of Narrative (pp. 191-206). Athens, GA: The University of
Georgia Press

[2] See Pennings, A. (2018, August 13). The Cyberpunk Genre as Social And Technological Analysis. Retrieved December 08, 2022, from https://apennings.com/dystopian-economies/the-
cyberpunk-genre-as-social-analysis/

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AnthonybwAnthony J. Pennings, PhD is a professor at the Department of Technology and Society, State University of New York, Korea teaching sustainable development and visual rhetoric. From 2002-2012, he was on the faculty of New York University where he taught comparative political economy, digital economics, and media production. He also taught film and television production at Marist College in New York and Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand. When not in the Republic of Korea he lives in Austin, Texas.

ICT4D and Digital Development in a Changing World

Posted on | December 14, 2022 | No Comments

Prepared remarks as moderator for the 2nd Annual ICT4D Faculty Panel: Digital Development in a Changing World. Monday, Nov 28, 2022 at the State University of New York, Korea (SUNY Korea) in Songdo, Republic of Korea.

This year, 2022, marks the halfway point for the Agenda for Sustainable Development, aimed for completion by 2030. Created by the United Nations during the time of Secretary-General Ban-Ki moon, 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were approved by the General Assembly for completion by 2030. SDGs were meant to create a “shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future.“ At this halfway point, the SDGs face new challenges and opportunities.

This panel will address issues related to Information and Communications Technologies for Development (ICT4D) in the context of the SDGs. A pressing topic is some of the challenges coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, including geopolitical constraints on material supplies and its impact on digital technologies.

SDGs are Sustainable Development Goals

Another contemporary concern threatening digital and sustainable development is the strength of the US dollar, the primary global reserve currency and vehicle for over 80% of international transactions. A worldwide shortage of the dollar (except in the US, apparently) increased its nominal value and turned it into an appreciating investment instrument, raising the purchase price. A strong US dollar makes imports for most countries more expensive, including digital and renewable energy technologies.

Purchasing smart devices, even the less expensive ones like Orange’s Sanza Touch, a 4G Android device, can become much more expensive. Solar panels, windmills, and other renewable technologies are also likely to be imported and additional dollars are needed for those as well. It may be that an alternate to the dollar emerges in the next several decades, maybe even a crypto version, but that doesn’t seem likely right now.[1]

Another issue is the looming limitation on material supplies, particularly on valuable elements and metals needed for ICTs and renewable energy technologies. A sustainable revolution needs massive shifts toward infrastructure development, and that means higher demand for a wide range of resources that need to be mined, refined, and distributed. The loss of crucial materials from Russia and Ukraine means energy and natural resource shortages that will influence green development. Steel, nickel, aluminum, copper, bauxite, neon, palladium, etc., critical elements of modern technologies, have suffered heavy supply shocks.

Food supplies are also increasingly insecure with potash and nitrogren-based fertilizers produced from natural gas becoming more scarce. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to interupt food production and flows, disadvantaged popultions, particularly wheat-eating people, will feel the shortages and price hikes.

Constraints on ICTs, natural resources, and renewable energies will present significant challenges for meeting the objectives and targets of the SDGs. Relentless pollution and atmospheric changes affecting climate security also drive strategic questions affecting digital development. At stake are biodiversity, ocean acidification, and human habitats prone to droughts, floods, and wildfires. ICT solutions have been identified for their potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 15 percent by 2030.[2]

Greenhouse gases increase the atmosphere’s temperature, allowing it to absorb more water. More moisture in the air means more weather volatility leading to droughts in some areas while increasing the intensity of hurricanes/typhoons along ocean coasts. For example, Hurricane Ida in late August of 2021 was extremely intense. After it came out of the Gulf of Mexico to hit Louisana, it had enough energy and moisture to travel north across the US mainland and drop in on New York City and surrounding areas, killing an additional 50 people.

Meanwhile, a number of factors present hope for a sustainable future and the role of ICT. Green funding has increased, particularly with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the US, and hopefully, recent commitments at the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 27) will be fruitful for climate justice and well as continued reductions in air pollution. Green New Deals are spreading worldwide, particularly in the stressed EU that had counted too much on Russian imports of hydrocarbons.

Korea has also envisaged a Green New Deal along with a Digital New Deal under the previous Moon administration, stressing its “fast follower” strategy to capitalize on its export industries to solve world problems while providing a protective safety net at home. Japan even recently voted Hyundai Motor’s all-electric Ioniq 5 SUV as its “Import Car of the Year.

Korean Green New Deal

Technological innovations have also been striking. Battery innovations, especially for long-term storage by companies like Ambri, can soothe the shortages of intermittent energy sources such as wind and solar. While many battery materials are scarce, spent cobalt, lead, and lithium in batteries can be successfully recycled.

Most significantly, the economics of renewables, with admittedly huge upfront investment requirements, have near-zero marginal costs over medium and long-term time frames. For example, once a windmill is constructed and operating, the subsequent costs are minimal, and as it produces electricity, wind “prints” money.

Climate awareness offers hope and motivation. Many climate deniers are still questioning the basic science and physical evidence, but the political will is growing to take impactful action to mitigate weather-related disasters and adapt to the changes.

What is the continuing role of ICT for Development (ICT4D) in this emerging post-COVID-19 environment? The Earth Institute has identified three key ICT (Information and Communications Technology) accelerators of the SDGs. These are mobility, broadband, and cloud services, such as platforms using AI and “big data.” These technologies can often “leapfrog” legacy communication and database systems to provide new efficiencies and opportunities in agriculture, education, energy, and healthcare. For example, while needing to be monitored with data justice precepts, digital ID programs can provide new eligibilities for financial inclusion, personal ownership, and social programs such as health services.

These key accelerators were woven into the BS in Technological Systems Management (TSM) specialization in ICT4D (Formerly ICT4SD) at SUNY Korea. This forum brings together a panel of faculty that teach these courses, including EST 371 – Data Science Management, EST 372 – The Mobile Revolution in Development, and EST 320 – Communication System Technologies, as well as today’s audience from EST 230 – ICT for Sustainable Development. We also cover related topics in our MS degree in Technological Systems Management, which includes a specialization in Digital Technologies in Disaster Risk Reduction. And, of course, several of our Ph.D. students in the Technology, Policy, and Innovation (TPI) program have pursued related research topics for their dissertations. All our degrees are conferred by Stony Brook University in New York.

Please welcome our faculty to today’s panel discussion.

James Larson
Suzana Brown 
Sira Maliphol
Jinsang Lee
Joseph Cabuay
Sangchan Park

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[1] The US dollar has been global since the 1950s as eurodollars, and had electronic versions since the late 1860s.
[2] Sachs, J. D. (n.d.). ICT and SDGs: How Information and Communications Technology Can Accelerate Action on the Sustainable Development Goals. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/e-agriculture/news/ict-and-sdgs-how-information-and-communications-technology-can-accelerate-action-sustainable

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AnthonybwAnthony J. Pennings, PhD is a professor at the State University of New York (SUNY), Korea where he teaches broadband policy and sustainable development. Previously, he taught at St. Edwards University in Austin, Texas and was on the faculty of New York University from 2002-2012. He also taught at Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand and was a Fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii in the 1990s.

VisiCalc and the Rise of the PC Spreadsheet

Posted on | December 7, 2022 | No Comments

Although the computer-based spreadsheet was conceptualized more than a decade before its mass release in 1979, overall conditions were not right for its technological and commercial development. Richard Mattessich conceived the digital spreadsheet when he wrote about the electronic simulation of business accounting techniques in his Simulation of the Firm through a Budget Computer Program (1964). Computers at the time did not have the type of immediate interactivity that made the later microcomputer-based spreadsheet so popular.[1]

The big computer mainframes of the 1960s and even the minicomputers of the time were not accessible enough to provide the type of direct experience needed to play with the numbers by making multiple changes and producing various scenarios that would make the spreadsheets so valuable later on. It was the microprocessor-enabled PCs that made possible the successive lineage of major digital spreadsheet applications – VisiCalc, Lotus 1-2-3, Microsoft’s Excel, and Google Sheets that would transform modern organizational practices.

It was only after government-sponsored miniaturization projects delivered the microprocessor and the counter-culture delivered the Apple computer that the technology developed to the point where it could provide a platform for the interactive spreadsheet. The Cold War’s “Space Race” and associated nuclear strategy of mutually assured destruction (MAD) provided the needed investments to transform vacuum tubes into solid-state circuits that continued the miniaturization of transistor technology into the 1970s.

Intel eventually developed the microprocessor, a digital switching device on a silicon “chip.” Apple and then IBM provided the smaller, more accessible “micro”-computing platforms that both demystified and democratized computing power needed for the successful use of digital spreadsheets. The first Apple II computers went on sale in June, 1977 with VisiCalc using the MOS 6502 (later Synertek) microprocessor.

The Microcomputer’s First “Killer App”

While spreadsheets were, in many ways, old technology, they emerged in a new way when a Harvard business student designed an electronic version. Drawing on standard paper-based accounting ledgers, Dan Bricklin, with his friend Bob Frankston, created a number processor on a microcomputer where figures could be displayed and calculated instantaneously and refigured each time a change needed to be made. Frankston called it “VisiCalc” as a shortened version of Visible Calculator.

This spreadsheet program was made in response to a task Bricklin had been assigned in an MBA class to determine the financial consequences of the acquisition of one company by another company. This process usually required long hours of tediously writing in numbers on paper ledgers and then doing the calculations. Then, the results often had to be entered into another spreadsheet. If a variable needed to be changed, the entire process would be repeated with the new figures. Bricklin, though, had extensive experience in the computer industry. He had an intuition that the process could be computerized and that numbers could be changed quickly like a word processor, so he sought out Frankston to pursue an idea he had to automate the process.

Bricklin and Frankston had computer science degrees from MIT and extensive experience in the industry. They met in the late 1960s while working for the Multics group at Project Mac, the first timesharing program. Bricklin went on to DEC where he was the project manager for WPS-8, one of the first word processing programs. In 1976, he left for a job with FasFax who made microprocessor-based cash registers. The next year he began his MBA studies where, faced with tedious calculations on green ledger sheets, he developed his ideas for an electronic spreadsheet. After getting a Masters degree in Engineering at MIT in 1974, Frankston went to work for Financial Information Service (later called Interactive Data Corporation or IDC) and later worked as a computer consultant. They would soon team up to create one of the most innovative programs in computer history.

As the story goes, Bricklin had two choices in 1978 for a homework assignment, either do it by hand or use a timesharing system; but he dreamed of another option: “Imagine if my calculator had a ball in its back, like a mouse, and imagine if I had a heads-up display, like in a fighter plane, where I could see the virtual image hanging in the air in front of me. I could just move my mouse/keyboard calculator around, punch in a few numbers, circle them to get a sum, do some calculations, and the answer 10% will be fine!”[5] Although the technology needed for this type of computer environment was many years away, excitement was building over the potential of the newly released microcomputer.

Bricklin and Franston renewed their friendship and started to work on their “visible calculator” with an Apple II lent to them by a third collaborator, Dan Fylstra, who had started a small software company called Personal Software after graduating from Harvard Business School a couple of years before Bricklin.

Bricklin conceived of his computerized approach to complex calculations by studying a matrix used for production planning. In one of his business classes that dealt with production techniques, Bricklin discovered how “some companies used long blackboards (sometimes stretching across several rooms) that were divided into a matrix of rows and columns. Each row and column had a specific definition, and calculations were made based on the contents of each cell (the intersection of a row and a column). If the value of one cell changed, the values of any cell that made use of the first cell’s value also had to be changed. Because this was all written on a blackboard, the results had to be checked and re-checked to make sure that something hadn’t been missed when changes were made during a planning session.”

Even though the computer could not display the entire matrix at once, the video screen could be used as a window on a part of the matrix, and this window could be moved at will to view any part of it. Best of all, the computer could keep track of all the calculations between the various cells, making sure that a change made in one place would be adequately reflected in the result of a calculation in another place.

Steven Levy. in an astute (1984) article called “A Spreadsheet Way of Knowledge” suggested that the digital spreadsheet was a social innovation comparable to the development of bookkeeping’s double entry accounting formula. This system of books used in early accounting raised the status of merchants and began to solidify the status of capitalism as it provided a structured narrative that testified to the honesty of merchants. It separated debits and credits and allowed merchants to get a new understanding of their business in a way that could assist decision-making and be audited and evaluated for investment.

The spreadsheet offered an even more sophisticated view of the business or organization by presenting a “numerical reality” that combined accounting with a more sophisticated way of managing resources: inventory, accounts receivables, or expenses such as salaries, rent payments, interest on loans, etc.

Spreadsheets allow a computer user to perform specific types of analyses to observe, rank, and explore new types of financial relationships along with possible ‘what-if’ scenarios. For the spreadsheet to help test various scenarios, it must recalculate the entire table each time a single change is made, allowing for multiple calculations within a short time period. Accounting activities that previously were tedious and required numerous hours of writing and calculating were reduced to mere minutes. The computerized spreadsheet helped spark a new economic dynamism, a versatile and easily figural electronic money that set off an explosion of new “paper” wealth.

Notes

[1] Mattessich and Galassi credit assistants Tom Schneider and Paul Zitlau with the development of the first actual computerized spreadsheet based on an algebraic model written by Mattessich. It was reported in “The History of Spreadsheet: From Matrix Accounting to Budget Simulation and Computerization”, a paper presented at the 8th World Congress of Accounting Historians in Madrid, August 2000. See Mattessich, Richard, and Giuseppe Galassi. “History of the Spreadsheet: From Matrix Accounting to Budget Simulation and Computerization.” Accounting and History: A Selection of Papers Presented at the 8th World Congress of Accounting Historians: Madrid-Spain, 19–21 July 2000. Asociación Española de Contabilidad y Administración de Empresas, AECA, 2000.See also George J. Murphy’s “Mattessich, Richard V. (1922-),” in Michael Chatfield and Richard Vangermeersch, eds., The History of Accounting–An International Encyclopedia (New York: Garland Publishing Co., Inc, 1997): 405.
[2] Levy, S. (1989) “A Spreadsheet Way of Knowledge,” in Computers in the Human Context: Information Technology, Productivity, and People. Tom Forester (ed.) Oxford, UK: Basil Blackwell.
[2] There is to some extent a poverty of language to describe the functions of the spreadsheet, although volumes have been written on the how-to of individual programs, a type of social theorization is sorely lacking. This quote was obtained off the Internet and cited to Hugh Legg’s “Ricco Mattessich: Acclaimed Researcher,” VIEWPOINTS (Summer 1988) p. 15.
[3] Mattessich and Galassi credit assistants Tom Schneider and Paul Zitlau with the development of the first actual computerized spreadsheet based on an algebraic model written by Mattessich. It was reported in “The History of Spreadsheet: From Matrix Accounting to Budget Simulation and Computerization”, a paper presented at the 8th World Congress of Accounting Historians in Madrid, August 2000.
[4] Levy, S. (1989) “A Spreadsheet Way of Knowledge,” in Computers in the Human Context: Information Technology, Productivity, and People. Tom Forester (ed) Oxford, UK: Basil Blackwell.
[5] Bricklin quote from (2002) Computing Encyclopedia. Volume 5: People. Smart Computing Reference Series. p. 30.
[6] Weyhrich, Steven. Sophistication & Simplicity: the Life and Times of the Apple II Computer. Variant Press, 2013. Originally in the Apple II History website at
[7] Interview with Dan Bricklin by Michael Fitzgerald, in RED HERRING, October 15, 2001, p 40.
[8] There is to some extent a poverty of language to describe the functions of the spreadsheet, although volumes have been written on the how-to of individual programs, a type of social theorization is sorely lacking. This quote was obtained off the Internet and cited to Hugh Legg’s “Ricco Mattessich: Acclaimed Researcher,” VIEWPOINTS (Summer 1988) p. 15.
Levy, S. (1989) “A Spreadsheet Way of Knowledge,” in Computers in the Human Context: Information Technology, Productivity, and People. Tom Forester (ed) Oxford, UK: Basil Blackwell.

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AnthonybwAnthony J. Pennings, PhD is a Professor at the Department of Technology and Society, State University of New York, Korea and Research Professor at Stony Brook University. He teaches digital economics and sustainable development. Previously, he taught macroeconomics and digital media management at New York University. He also taught in the MBA program at St. Edwards University in Austin, Texas, where he lives when not in South Korea.

The Techno-Epistemology of Databases, Part I

Posted on | November 6, 2022 | No Comments

How is meaning created in an environment of computer databases and digital spreadsheets? How is that meaning fixed? How is it organized? What are the processes and consequences of categorization and classification?[1]

This post posits that databases are an epistemological technology that is part of a system of knowledge production and management. It explores the unique meaning-producing capabilities that emerged with databases, particularly table-based relational databases, and how it affects modern organizations and society. They have transformed modern forms of bureaucratic and corporate organization and are major forms of “time-space power,” the ability to endure over time and operate over distances.

Databases, like digital spreadsheets, are constitutive technologies that can shape perceptions and knowledge through their ability to capture data, store it, process it, and render it accessible for retrieval, presentation, and analysis. Consequently, they organize resources and empower control over the lived experiences of people and the dynamics of social organizations.

Epistemology is generally known as the philosophical attempt to understand knowledge and produce theories of we comprehend the world. Philosophers such as Plato, John Locke, Immanuel Kant, and Bertrand Russell, among many others, have attempted to understand how we know, what knowledge means to the knower and the society they live in, and how knowledge can be verified and justified.

Techno-epistemology refers to knowledge produced, categorized, and certified within a particular technological context. In particular, it asks how the characteristics of the technology shape the ways of perceiving, recording, and organizing knowledge. Database technology and management are at the nexus of systematizing knowledge in the organization.

Stuart Hall’s insights into culture and the creation of meaning are a helpful starting point. In his classic work on Representation he discussed the role of concepts and the processes of classification, as well as how meaning is created and shared. Hall also raised issues regarding the role of culture in creating and organizing meaning.

Categorizing or classifying information, for Hall, is a basic human social process that produces meaning and separates information into that which “belongs” and that which does not, based on distinguishing characteristics such as resemblances or differences. It involves grouping or distributing according to some common relations or attributes. A list, for example, is a category of items that delineates what is within the group, and what is on the outside.

Classification is a cultural phenomenon that involves negotiating society’s conceptual maps. Stuart Hall argued that while the ability to conceptualize and classify is an inherent human biological trait, the systems of classification that are produced are socially produced and learned. This is because humans are meaning-making entities and also operate in environments that require the systemization of knowledge. “Socialization” is the process of learning society’s cultural categories and the value structures associated with them.

To investigate the topic of techno-epistemology more thoroughly, it is useful to analyze a particular database. Using a PC desktop database is sufficient for this initial formal analysis. Formal analysis is a strategy for describing artifacts and visual information. This approach can be applied to any work of art or cultural artifact. I also draw in the notion of remediation, which is how new media incorporate older media to be functional.

I previously analyzed digital spreadsheets to examine their components and how they use older media to work together to provide the spreadsheet’s organizational power and its influence on modern capitalism. That formal analysis discussed 5 components that came together to invest spreadsheet with their power: alphanumerical representations, lists, tables, cells, and formulas.

The purpose of analyzing databases is to continue the examination of how technology shapes the organization of knowledge by examining the components of a database. They have transformed modern forms of bureaucratic and corporate organization by shaping knowledge production and management. A central questions What is remediated in the database? In the next installment I will analyze the Microsoft Access database relational database program that includes tables, fields and records as well as queries, forms, reports, macros, and modules.

Notes

[1] In “The Influence of Classification on World View and Epistemology” Gholamreza Fadaie, Faculty of Psychology & Education, University of Tehran, Iran. Proceedings of the Informing Science & IT Education Conference (In SITE) 2008.
http://proceedings.informingscience.org/InSITE2008/InSITE08p001-013Fadaie410.pdf

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Pennings, A.J. (2022, Oct 11). The Techno-Epistemology of Database Classification, Part I. apennings.com https://apennings.com/technologies-of-meaning/the-techno-epistemology-of-databases-part-i/

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AnthonybwAnthony J. Pennings, PhD is a Professor at the Department of Technology and Society, State University of New York, Korea. From 2002-2012 was on the faculty of New York University where he taught comparative political economy, digital economics and traditional macroeconomics. He also taught in Digital Media MBA atSt. Edwards University in Austin, Texas, where he lives when not in the Republic of Korea.

Zeihan’s Global Prognostics and Sustainable Development, Part I

Posted on | October 11, 2022 | Comments Off on Zeihan’s Global Prognostics and Sustainable Development, Part I

Peter Zeihan has become a popular author and media celebrity for his ideas on declining demographic patterns, the shale oil revolution, and the end of globalization. He formerly worked for Stratfor, a private geopolitical forecasting company in Austin, Texas, started by noted geopolitical futurist George Friedman.[1] His new firm Zeihan on Geopolitics provides custom analytical products and briefings on global trends and how they might impact his corporate and government clients.

This post looks at Zeihan’s hypotheses and their implications for sustainable development, roughly defined by the United Nations Brundtland Commission as meeting the needs of the present without compromising future generations. While one might say that all countries in the world are undergoing a transition to sustainable development, countries have different circumstances and need to develop unique economic policies and solutions. In any case, they must maintain situational awareness regarding their financial, geographical, and military affairs. They should also consider the relevance of the UN’s sustainable development goals (SDGs) that plot a trajectory based on economic, social, and environmental objectives.[1] Zeihan’s model, which is not beyond critique, is a helpful point of departure for assessing the development needs in each and every country and the possibilities of the SDGs to help identify and meet those needs.

Zeihan has written four books, The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder (2016), The Absent Superpower (2017), Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World(2020), and just recently, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization (2022). But YouTube has probably been his most significant outlet. You can view the below and follow the recommended videos or search directly.

Zeihan’s approach is primarily focused on demographic trends, geographic constraints, military concerns, and legacy energy availability. For example, he discusses the Russian Federation’s situation primarily in terms of its declining population, reliance on metals, natural gas, and oil exports, and a history of being invaded by foreign armies through several geographical vulnerabilities (particularly the plains of Ukraine). His major concern is that Russia’s younger population is significantly declining, which means fewer workers, fewer consumers, and less capital investment capability from savings. He considers the war in Ukraine one last chance to start barricading the 11 potential invasion points that have haunted Russia in the past. Otherwise, Russia is likely to be invaded or break up in the next few decades.

He also weaves agriculture, finance, maritime shipping, rare materials, manufacturing, and military activities into his prognostications. His general conclusion is that globalization is ending, and countries will have problems dealing with their populations getting older and with fewer younger generations. And all this will mean clear winners and losers as globalization comes to an end. And why is it ending?

The starting point for his major arguments is that the US-led world order that provided financial stability and military protection for global trade is ending due to a lack of interest and political will. Since 1945, the US has provided the primary currency for international reserves and transactions. They also orchestrated maritime and military protection for a worldwide system of trade. However, he argues the United States has been stepping down from its role as the global bank and policeman, and it will leave many countries vulnerable to drastic changes in international commerce and military affairs.

The Bretton Woods Conference in New Hampshire during World War II designed a new financial and trading order. Replacing the old gold standard, economists and policymakers from around the world created a new financial system. It was based on connecting the US dollar to gold at $35 an ounce. At the same time, other countries were required to tie the value of their currencies to the dollar at fixed rates. They also created the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to help countries maintain their prescribed currency exchange rate and develop economically.

But just as crucial for Zeihan’s thesis is the US creation of a global security system to protect any country’s maritime exports and imports. The US Navy has over 200 ships that patrol the world’s waterways, including 11 “super” aircraft carriers and 9 “helo” carriers. Using nuclear power, the supercarriers can operate for over 20 years without refueling. Aircraft carriers usually carry dozens of fighter jets and project tremendous power and national prestige. While China has an overall numerical advantage, its ships have a limited range that restricts the area they can patrol. China has two aircraft carriers and one helo carrier. Russia has a powerful navy, but it is divided into four areas with limited access to the world’s oceans. The United Kingdom, France, and Japan are considered other powerful global navies.

Caveat: A country gets protection providing it sides with the US against Communism (and later “terrorism). He calls this “the bribe.”

The main problem with this global protection system, Zeihan argues, is that it died in the early 1990s with the fall of the USSR. The US populace has subsequently not been particularly interested in its continuance. Although it got renewed emphasis after 9/11 and the war on “terror.” The US has steadily turned inward and away from the world’s problems. The end of this protection will leave much of the world’s shipping at the mercy of hostile states and pirates.

Global shipping has several choke points, particularly the Straits of Malacca, between Singapore and Indonesia, as well as the Gulf of Hormuz between Iran and the UAE. These routes are vulnerable to naval attacks and blockades. China’s energy imports, for example, are quite vulnerable, as are its exports to the world. For example, a naval blockade near Sri Lanka could seriously hamper China’s industries and shut down much of the country. Zeihan argues that US protection keeps China from falling into chaos. Without the US, essential trade routes will require convoy protection capabilities that China has yet to achieve and will require new forms of shipping insurance that could be very expensive.

Likewise, the US dollar is the mediating global currency, which is not likely to change soon, despite US neglect. Recurrent dollar shortages have created havoc in world markets. These shortages are due to declining US purchases of foreign oil, diminished military presence overseas, and smaller trade deficits that have made the dollar much more scarce and, thus, more expensive. The upward trend in dollar strength has recently been accelerated by rising US interest rates and global capital flight into US dollar assets due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s potential attack on Taiwan.

His second major concern is the rapidly aging populations in the developed and newly industrialized worlds that will soon send many economies into free fall. These countries are facing severe demographic problems with increased older generations and smaller new generations, primarily due to urbanization. Populations provide workers, consumers, and investors. Industrialization and scientific advances have meant a population boom worldwide, but that trend is ending. As a result, consumer spending and tax revenues dry up, while pension payments and medical care consume much of what is left. Japan has been leading the way, but China is Zeihan’s primary concern. Add in the one-child policy, and Zeihan believes China is on the verge of a significant collapse. Europe is also vulnerable, as is Russia. He argues that Russia needed to have its war with Ukraine now to expand its empire and plug the geographical holes in its defenses or lapse into a slow, unrecoverable decline.

Energy is extremely important. The US is now energy-independent primarily based on the “Shale Revolution,” which refers to the combination of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and horizontal drilling that significantly increases the acquisition of natural gas and oil. Overproduction in 2017 caused price declines culminating in the tragic 2020 negative prices, but the market recovered as Covid-19 subsided and “revenge travel” ensued. Middle East countries are big producers of energy. Russia was important but is quickly going offline due to sanctions and a lack of technical expertise and may see many oil wells freeze up indefinitely. Venezuela has tremendous quantities but of a quality that is more expensive to refine.

Almost as important for his global analysis, is what countries are heavily dependent on gas and oil imports. China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are all severely dependent on foreign energy that must travel significant distances. These countries rely on large oil tankers (and paying in US dollars) to ship in their energy. Primarily built by France, Japan, and Sweden, and more recently South Korea. Zeihan says that a couple of destroyers in the Indian Ocean stopping oil tankers going to China could bring down the country within a year. For him, China is the most vulnerable country in the world.

Zeihan is not the biggest fan of renewable energies, although he claims to have solar panels on his home. He doesn’t think they will significantly scale in the quantities to replace oil and argues that many places are not suitable locations for wind or solar. He also points out that many of the rare elements and materials needed for the green revolution require inputs from many countries. If globalization continues to stall, Net Zero carbon pledges will be nearly meaningless.

In conclusion, Zeihan has a model of the world with several key variables that he uses to analyze the prospects for individual countries. Most are based on material conditions: geography, populations, oil, metals, etc. They produce a significant hypothesis: that globalization based on US protection is falling apart and that individual countries will have to assess their situations and decide whether to find partners or go it alone.

His model does not seem to highly value collective action, education, and innovation. These include cultural movements (including markets) and governmental momentum and policy that can assess and adapt to situations. It was, after all, the unlikely US mobilization for WWII that led to success in both the Atlantic and Pacific theaters and the technological innovations of radar, code decryption, and the atomic bomb, among other successes, that propelled the US to the global power it became and continued to sustain over nearly 80 years. He didn’t believe Ukraine would last long against Russia. (Who did?) Zeihan also downplays political influence in foreign policy and the tendency of the “military industrial complex” to shape US action.

However, the model he presents is a useful starting point for country assessments on the relevance of sustainable development goals. Every country has to evaluate its situation within the context of the world’s trading and financial arrangements. It needs to understand its demographic status to assess labor opportunities, investment trends, and consumption projections. It also needs to understand its topographical characteristics and limitations that determine the logistical capabilities of its navigable waterways, seaports, highways, and passable railways. These will help to realize what means it has available to mobilize resources and products for export as well as the access it has to world markets for the imports such as energy, plastics, steel, etc., that its producers need for everything from manufacturing to home building.

In Part II, I will go into more detail about how this model can serve the analysis of sustainable development in various countries.

Notes

[1] I’m testing this analytical approach in my undergraduate EST 230 ICT and Sustainable Development course. It’s important for the students to comprehend the context for sustainable development and understand the different challenges that different countries will face.

Citation APA (7th Edition)

Pennings, A.J. (2022, Oct 11). Zeihan’s Global Prognostics and Sustainable Development, Part I. apennings.com https://apennings.com/digital-geography/zeihans-global-prognostics-and-sustainable-development-part-i/

Ⓒ ALL RIGHTS RESERVED



AnthonybwAnthony J. Pennings, PhD is a Professor at the Department of Technology and Society, State University of New York, Korea. From 2002-2012 was on the faculty of New York University where he taught comparative political economy, digital economics and traditional macroeconomics. He also taught in Digital Media MBA atSt. Edwards University in Austin, Texas, where he lives when not in the Republic of Korea.

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